And the Nobel will go to...

Thursday the Nobel Prize in Literature is announced, and so I continue my tradition of failing to pick the winner.  My record is 100 percent at not being even close to reality.  So, here we go again.  Play along at home.

First, five I feel deserve to win (the certain kiss of death to winning chances, sorry Javier):

1. Javier Marías
2. Cesar Aira
3. Pascal Quignard
4. Mikhail Shishkin
5. Karl Ove Knausgaard

Next, three likely to win:

1. Haruki Murakami
2. Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o
3. Adonis

And three who could win but should not:

1. Haruki Murakami
2. Peter Handke
3. Philip Roth

And you? Who do you pick?